Don’t Wait For Spring: Why Now Is The Smart Time To Buy
Every winter, buyers tell their agents the same thing: “We’ll be ready in the spring.” In a normal cycle, that might make sense. But in today’s Austin market — and in many metros like it — waiting for spring 2026 could mean giving up options and leverage buyers finally have after years of frenzy.
Here’s how to frame the conversation with your clients, backed by data and grounded in what you’re seeing on the ground.
1. Inventory is back, and buyers finally
have choices
Unlock MLS data shows Central Texas has moved a long way from the one-month inventory days of 2021–22. By September 2025, the Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos MSA had 2,416 closed sales, up 6.7% year over year, while the median price slipped 1.8% to $420,000 — classic signs of a more balanced market.
By October, months of inventory across the MSA had climbed to about 5.3 — still shy of the six months that Texas A&M’s Texas Real Estate Research Center considers a “balanced” market, but far less tight than a few years ago. For your buyers, that translates into more active listings to choose from and a little more time to think before writing.
Local coverage backs that up. The Austin American-Statesman recently reported that Austin’s active listings are up roughly 70% from 2019, one of the biggest inventory rebounds among large U.S. metros. That’s a powerful talking point at the kitchen table: buyers in Austin are no longer competing for the same three houses in a ZIP code.
If clients ask, “Is it a buyer’s market yet?” the honest answer is “not quite — but it’s the closest we’ve been in years.”
2. Prices have reset from the peak
Another reason not to wait: your buyers are already shopping in a market that has corrected from its pandemic high.
Local analyses of Austin MLS data show that prices peaked in 2022 and have since come down meaningfully, with February 2025 values still below those highs. More recent Unlock MLS reports show mid-2025 prices flattening instead of surging — June’s median around $449,900, basically flat year over year. That doesn’t mean “fire sale.” It does mean the brutal double punch of record prices and 7%-plus rates has eased. Waiting for spring in a market that’s already done much of its price adjustment may leave buyers chasing the next up-cycle instead of taking advantage of today’s plateau.
For industry conversations, you can frame it this way: “We’re no longer in a runaway market. We’re in a market where buyers can negotiate again — and that window may not stay this wide open.”
3. Rates are painful, but the “new normal” favors acting sooner
Most buyer hesitation today is about rates, not prices. NAR’s forecast is helpful context here. The association projects 30-year mortgage rates stabilizing around 6% in 2025, essentially establishing a new normal rather than a return to 3% money.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has repeatedly tied even modest rate declines to significant jumps in demand. In his recent presentations, Yun showed that a shift from 7% to 6% could add roughly 550,000 home sales nationally over 12–18 months as new households qualify.
That matters for your buyers who say, “We’ll jump in when rates drop.” If and when rates move down from today’s plateau, they’re unlikely to be the only ones coming off the sidelines. Spring plus lower rates equals more competition, more multiple offers and fewer seller concessions.
Right now, you can often negotiate:
• Closing cost contributions
• Rate buydowns from sellers and builders
• Inspection, financing and appraisal contingencies that
actually stick
This is the kind of leverage that tends to vanish the moment demand spikes.
4. Builders are active, lots are available and incentives are real
New construction is another reason not to wait — especially in a builder-heavy state like Texas.
Zonda’s Lot Supply Index, which tracks vacant developed lots for new homes, hit its highest level in five years in 2025. Zonda’s research shows lot supply has loosened in most major markets, and Austin is one of just a few metros described as “appropriately supplied,” meaning builders finally have enough land to meet demand without pushing prices sharply higher.
A mid-year Zonda update for Austin highlighted softening new-home starts overall but the strongest sales activity under about $450,000 — an “elastic” segment where buyers respond quickly to incentives and price adjustments.
For your clients, that translates to:
• More spec inventory and quick-move-in options
• Builder incentives such as rate buydowns, upgrade credits and
closing cost help
• A wider spread between list price and net price than they might see in resale alone
Those incentives are a “use it while you have it” feature of today’s market, not a permanent condition.
5. Texas fundamentals are still strong — and pent-up demand is real
Zooming out, Texas continues to post job and population growth, even as higher rates cool sales. The Texas Real Estate Research Center’s 2025 economic outlook notes ongoing employment gains across the state’s major metros and anticipates improving real estate activity as inflation pressures ease.
NAR’s national forecast lines up with that. The association expects existing-home sales to rise from 2024’s trough in both 2025 and 2026 as more inventory hits the market and rates drift lower.
For buyers, that “rosier” outlook cuts both ways. It’s good news for long-term appreciation and stability. It’s also a signal that demand is likely to strengthen from here, not weaken. The households that buy now in Austin’s more forgiving environment may be glad they did once the next wave of competition shows up.
6. How to turn this into a “buy now” script for your clients
From a real-person, agent-to-client perspective, here’s how you might tie this all together:
Lead with options, not fear. “You have more homes to choose from today than at any point since before the pandemic, and we’re seeing prices that are flat or slightly down from last year.”
Shift the focus to monthly payment. Use lender scenarios to compare “today at 6-something with a seller credit” vs “spring with more competition and fewer concessions.”
Highlight negotiability. Show current list-to-sale ratios and days on market from your MLS to demonstrate that sellers and builders are dealing, especially in the under-$500,000 range.
Remind them they can refinance; they can’t re-buy the same house. A future refinance is optional. Losing a well-located home at today’s price because they waited for the perfect rate is permanent.
The message for fellow professionals is simple: in Austin and similar markets, “wait for spring” is outdated advice. The combination of higher inventory, softer prices, steady but plateauing rates, and builder incentives makes this season one of the most buyer-friendly environments we’ve seen in years — and a smart time for serious clients to act.
